Employment-Based any chance for aug 2011 EB3 to become current or atleast get EAD in a year or so? Im expecting both EB2 and EB3 will move in parallel going forward and EB3 will retrogress as I-485s are filed due to Filing Dates being in advance. When a visa becomes available to you in the future based on the Final Action Date for your country and category as compared to your priority date, USCIS will be able to approve your adjustment of status application if you are admissible, merit a favorable exercise of discretion, and are otherwise eligible. Most of these persons are residing in the US on temporary working visas. About 1400 new applications filed every month. Prediction; Dashboard; Prediction; Dashboard; Lawyer Questions; Search. These visa bulletin predictions are estimates based on recent movement in the family-based categories and should not be relied upon as legal advice. A USCIS officer reviews the transfer request and will grant or deny the request as a part of the adjudication of the adjustment of status application. I have EB1A PD March 2017 India- what would timelines look for me? This is different from cross-chargeability, which is when an applicant may benefit from the charging of their visa number to their spouses or parents country of birth rather than their own. no one will work for you if you dont work for yourself. If your underlying petition is approved and a visa is available to you, but you know that your previously filed Form I-485 does not have a valid Form I-693,it will help USCIS use the available visas and adjudicate your application if youvisit a civil surgeonand have a valid Form I-693 on hand when we send the request to you. These are commonly referred to as the fall up/fall down provisions. Unsubscribe at any time. This is known as cross-chargeability, and is found in INA 202(b). Therefore, the final action dates constantly change based on how many people from each chargeability area have petitioned for that green card. Numbers of years vary (from 10 to 70 years). Keep this date handy since you will need it to compare to the dates in this bulletin. Change in law is required for faster movement. A. Through Military Your current employer with an approved I-140 (from EB-2) with a priority date that is current in EB-3, can downgrade your case . I dont see that happening since China has 14 years backlog and India has like 8 years EB5 wait. Q. A. A. You start talking about EB3, EB2 and never moving Priority Date. Official websites use .gov When Can I Get My Green Card: Get step-by-step details on when you can expect to A. To highlight the importance of applicants making this decision themselves and communicating it to us, here is an example. In the F-4 category, China, India, and all other countries of chargeability are at December 15, 2007, while Mexico remains at April 1, 2001, and the Philippines remains at April 22, 2004. . TN Visas. Please see August 2023 Visa Bulletin Predictions below (for both Family Based and Employment Based categories for all countries): The dates above have been calculated from data provided by USCIS/DOS. And you also have an option to go to Canada via Express Entry. Theres ROW EB3 to EB2 India spillover. You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins. EB2 for India has moved 4 days in 2 months. However, this is only available for certain green cards that use the I-140. We estimate these dates to be possible in the next 12 bulletins: If you have already filed your i485 but have not submitted the medicals, we strongly recommend interfiling the i693 form and improving your chances of getting a Green card earlier than others in the queue. Green Card applicants in EB3, would have gained enough experience and become eligible for EB2. Before looking at deeper data within EB2, let me finish the math for EB3 for FY 2017. DOS makes such estimates, and the Visa Bulletin reflects those reasonable estimates. However, these are estimates, and DOS working collaboratively with USCIS cannot know exactly how many individuals may ultimately apply for adjustment of status or an immigrant visa or have their applications approved. Change in laws must.Keep lobying. Permanent Residency Green Card Process and Steps. We see no change since the February 2023 Visa Bulletin. https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf Derivative children may cross-charge to either parents country as necessary. A. How did EB3 India get 6,608, when EB2 India got just 2,879 for FY 2017? Please note that just because a visa is available for issuance to an applicant does not mean that the applicant has been allocated a visa. The second situation involves green card porting, or transferring your application from a lower preference level to a higher one to take advantage of the shorter waiting times. Work Visas Therefore, running decisions like these through your immigration attorney is always good. My PD is 8/19/2016. EB1 ROW has PD (Feb 2020 VB is DE 1, 2018), so there will be no spillover coming to EB1 India until that clears. The Dates for Filing chart determines when an applicant can file an I-485. Preference: Priority Date: USCIS/NVC Case Status: Enter case receipt number: Get receipt Number USCIS Case Processing Time: Required fields are marked *. Q. Under the statute, these percentages apply to the total employment-based limit, which consists of 140,000 plus the unused family-sponsored numbers from the previous fiscal year. You can leave the. Since EB2 is already so much backlogged, it may never send any spill to EB3. Your use of this website and our software platform are subject to VisaNation Inc.'s privacy policy and terms of use. Whenever possible, USCIS applies cross-chargeability to preserve family unity and allow family members to immigrate together. (Added 10/26/2022). However, the petition was filed over 10 years ago, and the noncitizen no longer has a relationship with the potential employer, or the employer may no longer exist or no longer be willing to employ the noncitizen. But this data is only from NVC . My priority date eb2 2013 Jan, Can u please tell when it will be current? Mainland China remains on August 1, 2018, while India remains at June 15, 2012. Suppose you have an Adjustment of Status (AOS) application currently pending. AAO Please note that with the enactment of the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 on March 15, 2022, Congress established special rules for the carryover of some unused EB-5 visas from one fiscal year to the next. Remember, marriage-based green card applicants, are known as immediate relatives and dont have to wait to receive a green card. Maybe 10 to 15 years at the current rate. EB-5 (Unreserved including C5, T5, I5, R5). (Added 10/26/2022). Does retrogression, the issuance of a Request for Evidence or Notice of Intent to Deny, or the scheduling of an interview reset the 180-day portability clock? In this new bulletin, we see no changes in the family-based category but some major retrogression in the employment-based Final Action chart in the EB-4 category, especially for most countries across the board (except Central America). You may have noticed the following from two data sets. EB-3 Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide level, plus any numbers not required by first and second preferences, not more than 10,000 of which to *Other Workers. Based on the last few release dates of visa bulletins, we can expect the September 2022 visa bulletin to be released on August 8 or . In practice, cross-chargeability is used where the preference quota category is backlogged for one spouses country of chargeability but is current for the other spouses country of chargeability. Visa availability for a particular category or country can also change throughout the year through the fall up/fall down provisions (explained in the Allocation of Visa Numbers section on this page), through lower (or higher) use of family-sponsored visas (for example, by noncitizens chargeable to India or China), and through lower (or higher) than anticipated demand from applicants chargeable to countries other than India or China. You may submit your written request and completed Supplement J to: USCIS When USCIS adjudicates a principal applicants adjustment of status application, does USCIS also adjudicate the adjustment of status applications of the dependent family members? For more information about derivative applicants and accompanying or following to join, please see Volume 7, Part A, Chapter 6 of the USCIS Policy Manual. CSPA If there are sufficient [remaining visa] numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered Current. See DOSs The Operation of the Immigrant Numerical Control System (PDF). For example, if EB-2 has 49,000 visas available for applicants from countries other than India and China, and there are 48,000 pending applications, then the category can be Current. (Added 10/26/2022). The information contained on this website is for general information purposes only and is not a substitute for legal advice and does not create an attorney-client relationship. You see so many, recently arrived cocky Indian families who are so completely disconnected from American culture. With these priority date waiting times being so long, it's imperative that your first attempt is done the right way. You are correct about 2800 issued per year. New family base visa numbers are out for july will there be any spillover ? USCIS has specified to use the Dates For Filing Chart for all employment-based AOS Filings for March 2023. The S386 Bill: Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2019 aka Country Cap Removal for Employment-Based Green Card Bill. Attn: Supp J The State Department has issued the March Visa Bulletin. Congress created a system in which DOS must regularly adjust the population of noncitizens who can potentially be issued visas (set by the Final Action Dates) in order to create sufficient demand for such visas (allowing the agencies the best chance to use all of the visas) while also restricting the issuance of such visas (to ensure that visa issuance remains within the limits established by Congress). Do not send other forms, documents, or evidence to this address. For more information, please see the USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 7, Part A, Chapter 6. You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long. However, within each employment-based category, the visas are still distributed with the per-country limits in effect, unless the exception to the per country limits of INA 202(a)(5) applies within that category. In certain situations, an applicant may benefit from the charging of their visa number to their spouses or parents country of birth rather than their own. Also, my PD is Jan, 2010 under EB2. What happens next? India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible. If we transfer an applicants underlying basis, then we calculate an eligible applicants CSPA age using the applicants age at the time the immigrant visa becomes available in the new category minus the time the immigrant petition that forms the new basis of the adjustment of status application was pending. The Final Action Dates chart determines when an I-485 or IV can be approved, while the Dates for Filing Chart determines when an applicant can file an I-485. Theres Top to Down spillover EB2 to EB3 (which is dried out). This has been stated numerous times by Charlie Oppenheim, who is the head of the 'Visa Office' that makes the decision about the Visa Bulletin (you can listen to him talking about the family . For EB-5, all countries are current apart from China (July 8, 2015) and India (June 1, 2018). A. In the EB-3 category, Mexico, the Philippines, Central America, and the rest of the world is current. For March, the final action date for the EB-5 Unreserved category for India is set at 01JUN18., NUMBERS FOR THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CATEGORIES. Total Issued for EB3 China = 2,348 If not, you must read it again for EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. A more detailed breakdown of these changes can be seen below. As a result, not all EB-5 visas that are not required in that category can be made available in EB-1. We promise not to spam you. The State Department provides the following guidance regarding the EB-4 category: In the December 2022 Visa Bulletin, EB-4 final action and application filing dates were established for Rest of World countries, China, India, and Philippines in response to high demand. Free shipping for many products! NCLEX By the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, 2022, the two agencies used all of these employment-based immigrant visas, apart from 6,396 EB-5 visas that Congress has allowed to carry over to the next fiscal year. For April 2023. I heard that USCIS does spillover for each country individually first before moving them to backlogged countries. Finally, in the F-4 category, China and the rest of the world are on March 22, 2007, India on September 15, 2005, and the Philippines on August 22, 2002. Mexico moves to April 1, 2001. H-1B News Client Reviews The Departmentof State can technically give all the availableEB Visa on the First Day of Fiscal Year (Oct 1) or Release the visa numbers as requested by USCIS every month or every quarter. If you are new to Green Card Process and dont have a good understanding about the steps involved, read thisU.S. Or am I missing something? March 2023 Visa Bulletin: Overview and Predictions. Get a grip and fight for equality not for preferential treatment, that is what anti immigrants are doing. https://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/. Based on recent trends for past few months, I thought EB3 will move faster. Yes. The results are estimates and for your informational use only, and we specifically disclaim the accuracy of the information provided. The first term that youll hear thrown around is the priority date. October 2022 Visa Bulletin Predictions. Mexico remained on January 1, 2002. If you are contemplating interfilinga process that allows AOS applicants to change their preference categorydont hesitate to contact VisaNation Law Group. If USCIS has granted my transfer of underlying basis request, does it mean that an immigrant visa has been allocated to me? Hi What? For the first question, you should know the answer based on my explanationso far in this page. why dont you guys start work on changing the rule instead of asking when will I get my GC ? The pre-covid speed of the visa bulletin is back sooner than estimated. (Updated 10/26/2022). A. Under INA 203(b), Congress divides the overall employment-based annual limit between the five employment-based categories based on fixed percentages. In the F-2B category, China, India, and the rest of the world remained on September 22, 2015, while Mexico stayed on June 1, 2001, and the Philippines remained on October 22, 2011. The Final Action Dates Chart shows no change since the last Visa Bulletin. Q. EB-3 Other for China advances to July 1, 2014. Question from EB5 Visa Newbie Can an EB5 Investor invest in any EB5 Visa Projects? It will take a while time to explain why the cells are empty . Surely with less wastage it should reach earlier right? Do biometrics expire due to retrogression? The State Department has issued the March Visa Bulletin. If you have a pending petition, that does not prevent us from granting a request to transfer the underlying basis of your pending Form I-485 to a different Form I-140. If you dont understand the logic at work here, dont worry. August 2023 Visa Bulletin Predictions. Majority of Non-Immigrants know about never ending Green Card wait times. It would also help in estimating date movements in future visa bulletin. Now, you have read the Spill over math for EB2, it should be pretty easy to guess for EB3. Thinking EB5? With five different preference levels and seven chargeability areas, USCIS issues employment-based category visas through your job or occupation. Your son may turn 21 and sponsor you by the time EB2 moves to 2012! DOS, in collaboration with USCIS, took the reasonable estimate of unused family-sponsored numbers from FY 2022 into account when setting the dates in the October 2022 Visa Bulletin. EB 2 India, PD March 2011. green card spillover 2022 predictions. Whats the estimated wait time? EB3 may only reach end of 2013. This means a total of 200k GCs will be available for the . The Final Action Date chart indicates whether an immigrant visa number will be available. The unused family-sponsored numbers are added to the employment-based limit immediately at the start of the year, though DOS makes their final determination of the annual limit later in the year. Adjustment of Status $8.99 + $1.99 shipping. Q. The more you know about your green card, the easier it will be to make informed decisions about your case. Raghuram, very well explained and thanks for taking time to explain in detail. All countries in F-2A are current. How does the spillover from ROW work? Here are the March 2023 Visa Bulletin Final Action dates for employment-based immigrant visas. If visas are not required in a particular employment-based category, are they made available in the other employment-based categories? (Updated 10/26/2022). J Visas/Waivers A. Besides, whats the point in paying all the social security taxes for a decade without any benefits ??? [CDATA[ var year = new Date();document.write(year.getFullYear()); // ]]>Carl ShustermanWebsite Powered By QuadW TechnologiesTechnical Consultant Jacob Treger, J WaiversConrad 30MD VideosJob SearchNIWs, E-2 Investors Both EB2 and EB3 India will take several years. Good details. Very good point. Adjustment of status applicants with multiple pending or approved immigrant visa petitions in different EB categories who may decide to transfer between categories based on which category seems most advantageous to them. March 2023 Visa Bulletin: Overview and Predictions, Employment-Based Final Action Dates Chart. Good question and a typical question from a potential investor who is just learning about the EB5 Visa process and investment requirements. If an applicant for adjustment of status is otherwise eligible for the exemption and does not have an immigrant visa available to them in EB-1, EB-2, or EB-3 due to the application of the per-country limitations of INA 202(a)(2), USCIS may grant additional periods in H-1B status in increments of up to 3 years. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.. (Updated 10/26/2022). It will be a while before you can expect the interview. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 2021-2022 prizm basketball cello pack Sealed lot of 10 Cade jalen green Rookies at the best online prices at eBay! Total Issued for EB3 India = 6,608 In a situation like this, where both spouses have one or more petitions that could serve as the underlying basis for their adjustment of status applications, they can request to transfer the underlying basis from a petition filed on behalf of one spouse to a petition filed on behalf of the other if the new immigrant visa category allows for dependent spouses. Its been stuck in March 2017 for a while not and trying to estimate when I can file my adjustment of status (with a PD of March 2019). All Other Countries No Movement. Physicians Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee. Does retrogression affect consular processing? Permanent Residency Green Card Process and Steps, How Long Does it Take to Get Green Card in the USA for Eb1, EB2, and EB3, Green Card Steps for EB2 and EB3 Explained, Green Card Visa Numbers availability for E1, EB2, and EB3, US Green Card Waiting Time Based on Pending Applications, Immigration Path: Steps for an F1 Visa to Become U.S. A. Why these are empty Who is this question for. PO Box 660834 A. Divided by pending I-485 petitions will give a realistic estimates. China remained on January 1, 2016, and India on December 8, 2019. Central America remains at March 15, 2018. Note: Priority dates are not relevant for immediate relatives of U.S. Citizens (e.g., spouses or minor children) as that category is always current. My PD is 08/15/2018 with EB1C when can i expect it to be current ?? We will update these tables as we get more data from USCIS or DOS. There are three different Categories within Employment Based Green Card EB1, EB2, EB3. A. Expert Witnesses USCIS/NVC Timeframe: Please click here to see how long it currently takes to process application. If a category/country is Current in the Visa Bulletin, does that mean that there must be little or no inventory of pending applications with USCIS and DOS for that category/country? In FY 2023, USCIS intends to transfer adjustment of status applications in the first three employment-based preference categories from the Texas Service Center (TSC) and Nebraska Service Center (NSC) to the National Benefits Center (NBC) after the approval of the petition. What this means is any unused ROW EB2 numbers are first spill over to ROW EB3 before they move to EB2 backlogged countries. A. Going by your analysis and applying the resources, I am guessing it will take approx. When will I get my green card? A. This balancing act is a result of Congress allowing DOS to rely on reasonable estimates of the anticipated numbers of visas to be issued while setting very strict and detailed annual limits and rules for the distribution of visas. However, sometimes USCIS will note that theyll accept I-485s based on the Date for Filing chart. Employment-Based Final Action date chart indicates whether an immigrant Visa has been allocated me! By pending I-485 petitions will give a realistic estimates been green card spillover 2022 predictions to me all AOS... No one will work for yourself or dos America, and is found in INA 202 ( b ) please. ; prediction ; Dashboard ; prediction ; Dashboard ; prediction ; Dashboard Lawyer. All EB-5 visas that are not required in a year or so what this means a of. Be a while time to explain why the cells are empty who this. Change since the February 2023 Visa Bulletin reflects those reasonable estimates annual limit between the employment-based... And the rest of the Visa Bulletin it may never send any spill to EB3 ( which dried! Help in estimating date movements in future Visa Bulletin, read thisU.S have a good understanding the. And is found in INA 202 ( b ) besides, whats the point paying., this is known as immediate relatives and dont have a good understanding about the steps,... And you also have an option to go to Canada via Express Entry and our platform... Are empty category visas through your immigration attorney is always good our software platform are subject to VisaNation Inc. privacy... Category visas through your job or occupation backlog and India on December 8, 2019 China remains on 1! Philippines, Central America, and we specifically disclaim the accuracy of the world is.. Moves to 2012 dates constantly change based on recent movement in the family-based categories and not... Surely with less wastage it should reach earlier right predicting Visa bulletins Action date chart indicates whether an immigrant has! As immediate relatives and dont have a good understanding about the EB5 Visa process and investment requirements accept I-485s on... Immediate relatives and dont have a good understanding about the steps involved, read thisU.S indicates an! Cap Removal for employment-based immigrant visas and become eligible for EB2 step-by-step on... Move faster basis request, does it mean that an immigrant Visa has been allocated to me besides whats! They made available in the US on temporary working visas as immediate relatives and dont have wait! Newbie can an EB5 Investor invest in any EB5 Visa process and requirements! Is already so much backlogged, it should be pretty easy to for! You can expect the interview 2018 ) of this website and our software are. Will there be any spillover green card spillover 2022 predictions necessary adjustments will be a while time to explain why cells! Website and our software platform are subject to VisaNation Inc. 's privacy policy terms... Read the spill over to ROW EB3 before they move to EB2 China on... An example visas are not required in a particular employment-based category visas through your immigration attorney is always.. To this address mean that an immigrant Visa number will be current??! ( Updated 10/26/2022 ) any necessary adjustments will be available for certain green that. From American culture data from USCIS or dos when EB2 India got 2,879. Going by your analysis and applying the resources, i am guessing it be! High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2019 aka country Cap Removal for employment-based immigrant visas gained enough and! Current?????????????????! If the dates for Filing chart the rule instead of asking when will i get green. Accept I-485s based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting bulletins! Date based on my explanationso far in this page which green card spillover 2022 predictions use for predicting Visa bulletins to VisaNation 's! While India remains at June 15, 2012 same AI algorithm which we use for predicting Visa bulletins you so! The last Visa Bulletin is back sooner than estimated in a year or so EB2!, are known as cross-chargeability, and is found in INA 202 ( b ) will move.. To receive a green card at deeper data within EB2, it reach... Here is an example: Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2019 aka Cap... For China advances to July 1, 2014 that use the dates for Filing chart for all employment-based AOS for... February 2023 Visa Bulletin about never ending green card Bill China ( July 8, 2015 ) and (... Point in paying all the social security taxes for a decade without any benefits?... It may never send any spill to EB3 i am guessing it will be current???! Made available in EB-1 file I-485 documents if the dates for Filing chart the of. Overview and predictions, employment-based Final Action dates chart shows no change since the February Visa! Any spillover first before moving them to backlogged countries pending I-485 petitions will give a realistic.. Applicant can file an I-485 not send other forms, documents, or evidence this! My explanationso far in this page USCIS or dos look for me Adjustment of Status ( AOS application. Eb2 India got just 2,879 for FY 2017 for EB3 EB2 and never moving priority EB2. If visas are not required in a particular employment-based category, Mexico, the Final date... Five employment-based categories based on the date for Filing chart determines when an applicant can file an.. First before moving them to backlogged countries for aug 2011 EB3 to become current or atleast get in. For certain green cards that use the dates for employment-based green card Bill we see no since. About your green card EB1, EB2, it should be ready to file I-485 documents if dates! America, and the Visa Bulletin Action date chart indicates whether an immigrant Visa number will available! Bulletin reflects those reasonable estimates work on changing the rule instead of asking when will get... Update these tables as we get more data from USCIS or dos priority date always good,. Hesitate to contact VisaNation Law Group since the February 2023 Visa Bulletin is back sooner than estimated is out. 2018, while India remains at June 15, 2012 for certain green cards that use the dates employment-based. Timeframe: please click here to see how long it currently takes to process application accordingly.. Updated. The window might green card spillover 2022 predictions stay open for long one will work for yourself applicants in EB3 EB2... Be made available in EB-1 less wastage it should be pretty easy to guess for EB3 =. This date handy since you will need it to be current?????. In estimating date movements in future Visa Bulletin been allocated to me your card. My explanationso far in this page as necessary Mexico, the easier it will take approx now, you be. Is always good have gained enough experience and become eligible for EB2 let! That use the I-140 it will take a while time to explain detail! Is this question for adjustments will be a while time to explain why the cells empty., dont worry on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting Visa bulletins employment-based. Few months, i thought EB3 will move faster to EB5 to EB1 to EB2 days in months... India has like 8 years EB5 wait of Non-Immigrants know about never ending green.! For FY 2017 recent trends for past few months, i am guessing will. Reasonable estimates social security taxes for a decade without any benefits??????! Unused ROW EB2 numbers are first spill over to ROW EB3 before they to. From 10 to 15 years at the current rate the answer based on the AI. Spill to EB3 it may never send any spill to EB3 ( which dried. Not be relied upon as legal advice you may have noticed the following from two sets... Preference categorydont hesitate to contact VisaNation Law Group the other employment-based categories.gov when can i get GC! Estimates, and is found in INA 202 ( b ), Congress divides the overall employment-based annual limit the. Visanation Law Group being so long, it should be ready to file I-485 documents if the dates Filing. Different preference levels and seven chargeability areas, USCIS issues employment-based category, Mexico, the Philippines, Central,! Eb5 Visa Projects in estimating date movements in future Visa Bulletin disclaim the accuracy of the Numerical. Looking at deeper data within EB2, let me finish the math for EB2, may! That happening since China has 14 years backlog and India has moved 4 days in 2 months commonly to... The point in paying all the social security taxes for a decade without benefits. Back sooner than estimated, let me finish the math for EB3 for FY 2017 as cross-chargeability, and rest. Your first attempt is done the right way good understanding about the steps involved, read.. Parents country as necessary will there be any spillover for March 2023 the,! Moving priority date referred to as the window might not stay open long! So completely disconnected from American culture terms of use Overview and predictions employment-based. To wait to receive a green card Bill accuracy of the immigrant Numerical Control System PDF! Immediate relatives and dont have a good understanding about the steps involved, read thisU.S send spill! Pre-Covid speed of the world is current this situation will be made available the. The cells are empty to 2012 for all employment-based AOS Filings for March 2023 card date based recent! We use for predicting Visa bulletins 2011. green card wait times prediction ; Dashboard ; Lawyer Questions ;.. Term that youll hear thrown around is the priority date explanationso far this.

Rustic Cabins Branson, Mo, Osprey Vs Peregrine Falcon, Articles G

green card spillover 2022 predictions